Out: Amazon's Prime Day that's actually one day. In: Prime Day that's stretched to a four-day affair, in hopes of enticing both shoppers and sellers at a time of pricing uncertainty given ever-shifting tariff plans.
The midsummer sales, between July 8 and 11, might offer an early test of the long-touted consumer resilience that's been propelling the U.S. economy through the Trump administration's shakeup of import costs.
Spending across U.S. retailers over these four July days is once again expected to reach records, equivalent to two Black Fridays' worth. That's according to Adobe, whose forecasts are based on its tracking of online transactions. Adobe predicts shoppers will spend $23.8 billion this week, up by 28% compared to last year.
Adobe also says discounts are on par with last year's, but the context is new: Shoppers are increasingly hunting for deals and considering how tariffs might affect future prices.
"We can expect to see some of the most popular deals on consumer electronics, since buyers will be on the lookout for bargains and to avoid potential tariff-driven price increases later in the year," said Sky Canaves, a retail analyst at the research firm Emarketer.
Electronics and back-to-school supplies are expected to top many shoppers' lists. Sellers are under pressure to raise prices on both thanks to tariffs imposed by President Trump — particularly on China. Best Buy has sounded alarms about computers, laptops and other tech gear.
Chinese imports face an effective new tariff of 30% — a temporary reprieve from Trump's original 145% tariff as the U.S. and China try to negotiate a trade deal. The White House is similarly negotiating with all other countries, and on Monday Trump pushed the deadline for those deals from July 9 to August.
Trump frames tariffs as a fee paid by other countries — a sort of punishment for a trade imbalance. But it's often U.S. importers — wholesalers and retailers — who foot the bill and typically pass some of the cost to consumers. Walmart, for example, has warned prices will rise as a result.
The strong job market and wage growth have allowed U.S. shoppers to keep spending through inflation and tariff uncertainty. Plus, many stores have absorbed tariff costs so far — or they're selling off products they had rushed to import before tariffs kicked in. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told CNBC last week that's the tactic its sellers have used and prices haven't gone up "appreciably."
Spending at restaurants and stores dipped in May compared to April, down 0.9% in the latest Commerce Department report. One major driver was a decline in auto sales after people had rushed to buy cars and trucks earlier in the spring, hoping to get ahead of tariffs. Data for spending in June is due next week.
Prime Day originally began as a way for Amazon to boost sales during an ordinarily sleepy time and draw more subscribers into its membership program. Now, it's an industry-wide "Black Friday in July" as most rivals, including Walmart and Target, chase the mid-year shopping dollars.
In fact, spending at other retailers began growing faster than at Amazon during Prime Day sales, which have lately been a two-day event. But now the four-day stretch is giving Amazon a boost, and Emarketer projects that the retailer will account for 75% of Prime Day spending compared to less than 60% last year.
Editor's note: Amazon is among NPR's recent financial supporters and pays to distribute some NPR content.
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